Monday, October 22, 2012

Yen Falls for 8th Day After Export Slump Spurs BOJ Bets


The yen fell for an eighth day against the dollar, the longest streak in seven years, as a report showing Japan’s exports fell the most since the 2011 earthquake fueled bets the central bank will add more stimulus.
Japan’s currency dropped at least 0.5 percent versus all 16 of it major counterparts after Economy Minister Seiji Maehara pressed the Bank of Japan yesterday for more action to boost the economy. The euro rose after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy extended an electoral majority in his northwestern home region, with voters offering some respite to his government as it decides on whether to seek a bailout. South Africa’s rand strengthened against all of its major counterparts.
 Yen Falls for 8th Day After Export Slump Spurs BOJ Easing Bets
The yen slid 0.5 percent to 79.68 per dollar at 8:58 a.m. London time, after touching 79.69, the weakest since July 12. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
“The market is expecting something from the BOJ and that’s the reason dollar-yen is moving higher,” said Niels Christensen, a currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “Weak data is also supporting that view.”
The yen declined 0.6 percent to 79.78 per dollar as of 11:08 a.m. London time after dropping to 79.87, the weakest level since July 12. Japan’s currency slid 0.8 percent to 104.15 per euro. The euro gained 0.3 percent to $1.3064 after dropping 0.7 percent over the previous two trading days.
Japanese exports fell 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of 558.6 billion yen, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 9.9 percent decline. The decline was the most since May 2011, two months after a magnitude-9 quake struck northeastern Japan, triggering a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.

BOJ Decision

The BOJ announces its next policy decision on Oct. 30 and will also issue its economic projections for the 2012 and 2013 fiscal years and its first set of forecasts for 2014. After the Federal Reserve announced open-ended easing last month, its Japanese counterpart responded by expanding its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen on Sept. 19.
“The market is acting with an assumption that there will be additional stimulus by the Bank of Japan (8301),” hurting the yen, said Junichi Ishikawa, an analyst at IG Markets Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. “The economies in Europe and Japan look bleaker compared with the U.S., which is also a buying catalyst for the dollar.”
Traders cut bets the yen will gain versus the dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a rise in the Japanese currency compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 10,086 on Oct. 16, compared with net longs of 12,914 a week earlier.

‘Falling Short’

“On a monetary basis, Japan is falling short,” Maehara said yesterday on a Fuji Television program.
The euro rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after Rajoy’s People’s Party won 41 of the 75 seats in the regional assembly in Galicia, allowing it to extend its majority in the northwestern region as the Socialists lost almost half of their votes.
A report tomorrow will show an index of European consumer confidence was unchanged in October at minus 25.9, matching September’s reading which was the lowest since May 2009, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Leaders at a European Union summit in Brussels last week committed to agreeing by year-end on a legislative framework for a single bank supervisory mechanism, a deal that Moody’s Investors Service said is negative for the credit ratings of weaker nations.
The euro has weakened 0.8 percent since climbing to $1.3172 on Sept. 17, which was the strongest since May.
“With all the big drivers that have moved euro-dollar in the past, there’s nothing new at the moment,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “So this range trading we’ve seen for a while will dominate.”
The rand gained 0.6 percent to 8.6128 per dollar and appreciated 0.3 percent to 11.2426 per euro.

Source: Bloomberg


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