Pound Rises Against Dollar as Report Shows Insolvencies Declined

The pound rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after an industry report showed the number of U.K. business insolvencies fell in September, boosting optimism the economic recovery is strengthening.
Government bonds fell, pushing 10-year yields toward the highest in a month. The U.K. exited a recession in the third quarter, with gross domestic product increasing 0.6 percent from the previous three months, data due for release on Oct. 25 will show, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Retail sales rose more than analysts estimated in September, a report last week showed.

Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Elsa Lignos, a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, talks about her foreign-exchange strategy. She speaks from London with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)

“The recent data have been relatively supportive for the pound, showing there is a bottoming out of the economic cycle,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “GDP is the release this week that has the potential to move the market because it will spur speculation about what the Bank of England might do.”
The pound appreciated 0.2 percent to $1.6034 at 11:44 a.m. London time, after declining 0.4 percent last week. Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to 81.50 pence per euro. It touched 81.51 pence, the weakest level since June 15.
Insolvencies dropped 3.1 percent from a year earlier to 1,679 companies, affecting 0.08 percent of all businesses, data from Dublin-based Experian Plc (EXPN) showed. Bankruptcies at U.K. companies with 26 to 50 employees fell 16 percent to 92 firms.
The pound will probably drop to $1.57 within a year, Leuchtmann predicted.

Gilts Slide

Sterling slid 1 percent in the past three months, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-market currencies. The euro gained 4.2 percent and the dollar dropped 3.9 percent.
The 10-year gilt yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.91 percent after climbing to 1.96 percent Oct. 18, the highest since Sept. 17.
The additional yield, or spread, investors demand to hold U.K. 10-year gilts rather than similar-maturity German bunds widened to 30 basis points, the most since July, based on closing-market rates.
Gilts have handed investors a return of 2 percent this year through Oct. 19, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. German bonds gained 2.5 percent, the indexes show, while Treasuries returned 1.7 percent.


Source: Bloomberg

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Yen Falls for 8th Day After Export Slump Spurs BOJ Bets

The yen fell for an eighth day against the dollar, the longest streak in seven years, as a report showing Japan’s exports fell the most since the 2011 earthquake fueled bets the central bank will add more stimulus.
Japan’s currency dropped at least 0.5 percent versus all 16 of it major counterparts after Economy Minister Seiji Maehara pressed the Bank of Japan yesterday for more action to boost the economy. The euro rose after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy extended an electoral majority in his northwestern home region, with voters offering some respite to his government as it decides on whether to seek a bailout. South Africa’s rand strengthened against all of its major counterparts.

 

The yen slid 0.5 percent to 79.68 per dollar at 8:58 a.m. London time, after touching 79.69, the weakest since July 12. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

“The market is expecting something from the BOJ and that’s the reason dollar-yen is moving higher,” said Niels Christensen, a currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “Weak data is also supporting that view.”
The yen declined 0.6 percent to 79.78 per dollar as of 11:08 a.m. London time after dropping to 79.87, the weakest level since July 12. Japan’s currency slid 0.8 percent to 104.15 per euro. The euro gained 0.3 percent to $1.3064 after dropping 0.7 percent over the previous two trading days.
Japanese exports fell 10.3 percent in September from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of 558.6 billion yen, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 9.9 percent decline. The decline was the most since May 2011, two months after a magnitude-9 quake struck northeastern Japan, triggering a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.

BOJ Decision

The BOJ announces its next policy decision on Oct. 30 and will also issue its economic projections for the 2012 and 2013 fiscal years and its first set of forecasts for 2014. After the Federal Reserve announced open-ended easing last month, its Japanese counterpart responded by expanding its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen on Sept. 19.
“The market is acting with an assumption that there will be additional stimulus by the Bank of Japan (8301),” hurting the yen, said Junichi Ishikawa, an analyst at IG Markets Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. “The economies in Europe and Japan look bleaker compared with the U.S., which is also a buying catalyst for the dollar.”
Traders cut bets the yen will gain versus the dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a rise in the Japanese currency compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 10,086 on Oct. 16, compared with net longs of 12,914 a week earlier.

‘Falling Short’

“On a monetary basis, Japan is falling short,” Maehara said yesterday on a Fuji Television program.
The euro rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after Rajoy’s People’s Party won 41 of the 75 seats in the regional assembly in Galicia, allowing it to extend its majority in the northwestern region as the Socialists lost almost half of their votes.
A report tomorrow will show an index of European consumer confidence was unchanged in October at minus 25.9, matching September’s reading which was the lowest since May 2009, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Leaders at a European Union summit in Brussels last week committed to agreeing by year-end on a legislative framework for a single bank supervisory mechanism, a deal that Moody’s Investors Service said is negative for the credit ratings of weaker nations.
The euro has weakened 0.8 percent since climbing to $1.3172 on Sept. 17, which was the strongest since May.
“With all the big drivers that have moved euro-dollar in the past, there’s nothing new at the moment,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “So this range trading we’ve seen for a while will dominate.”
The rand gained 0.6 percent to 8.6128 per dollar and appreciated 0.3 percent to 11.2426 per euro.

Source: Bloomberg


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Asian Currencies Gain in Week on Recovery Optimism; Rupee Drops

South Korea’s won led a weekly advance in Asian currencies as signs of an improvement in the global economy brightened the outlook for the region’s exports and spurred demand for emerging-market assets.
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s most-active currencies, rose 0.1 percent and on Oct. 18 touched its highest level since February. The won strengthened the most this month and the yuan had an 11th weekly gain, the longest winning streak since March 2008. India’s rupee fell for a second week as the government announced a pickup in inflation. Hong Kong’s dollar touched the strong end of its permitted trading range, triggering intervention to maintain the peg.
China’s factory production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment accelerated in September, reports showed Oct. 18. Retail sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest economy, increased 1.1 percent in September while housing starts climbed 15 percent to a four-year high, reports showed this week. Europe’s leaders committed to their goal of creating a euro-area bank supervisor by year-end, according to officials at a European Union summit that took place in Brussels.
“The September data was clearly stronger than expected,” said Nizam Idris, head of Asian fixed income and currencies at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The growth momentum will continue. Still, we are at a very early stage of the recovery so it’s too soon to expect” faster gains in Asian currencies, including the yuan, he said.
The won appreciated 0.7 percent this week to 1,103.45 per dollar in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yuan rose 0.21 percent to 6.2538, touching a 19-year high of 6.2446 on Oct. 18. Taiwan’s dollar climbed 0.3 percent to NT$29.286.

Hong Kong Peg

Hong Kong’s dollar rose 0.02 percent to HK$7.7503. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said yesterday it bought $603 million at HK$7.75 per dollar during New York trading hours on Oct. 19, intervening for the first time since 2009 to maintain a peg that requires the exchange rate to be kept in a range of HK$7.75 to HK$7.85.
The won touched 1,102.50 on Oct. 17, the strongest level since 0ct. 31, 2011. South Korea’s economy probably expanded 1.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the least in three years, a Bloomberg survey showed before data due Oct. 26.
“The won was strong this week on positive data from the U.S., but it seems some overseas investors are covering their short positions on the dollar,” said Lee Jung Hyun, a Seoul- based currency trader for Industrial Bank of Korea. (024110) A short position is a bet an asset will decline in value.

China Outlook

The yuan has extended its rebound from this year’s low of 6.3967 on July 25 to 2.3 percent after September data indicated growth is gathering pace in the world’s second-largest economy. Factory output grew 9.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with an 8.9 percent gain in August that was the smallest in three years, official figures showed Oct. 18. Retail sales advanced 14.2 percent, the most since March, while fixed-asset investment climbed 21 percent in the first three quarters.
“We believe China’s economy has bottomed out in August or September,” said Tommy Ong, a Hong Kong-based senior vice- president of treasury and markets at DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd. “Improvement in global liquidity and calls for more appreciation from the U.S. presidential campaign trail are also supporting the yuan.”
The rupee fell 1.9 percent this week to 53.84 per dollar as faster inflation eroded the appeal of assets denominated in the currency. India’s benchmark price index increased 7.81 percent last month from a year earlier, the most since December, according to figures released Oct. 15.
Elsewhere, the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.1 percent this week to 3.0535 per dollar. Indonesia’s rupiah fell 0.1 percent to 9,593 from last week’s 9,588, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency reached 9,657 on Oct. 11, the weakest level since October 2009. The Philippines peso appreciated 0.1 percent to 41.385. Vietnam’s dong climbed 0.1 percent to 20,843.

Source: Bloomberg


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Canadian Dollar Falls Most Since May as Rate Outlook Eases

The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most since May as a lower-than- forecast advance in consumer prices added to speculation the central bank will place less emphasis on raising policy rates.
The loonie, as the currency is nicknamed for the image of aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, slumped against almost all of its most-traded peers this week. Governor Mark Carney suggested Oct. 15 that the Bank of Canada will abandon its tightening bias at the Oct. 23 policy meeting. Oil fell as forecasts from bellwether companies signaled slowing economic growth.
Policy makers “are certainly walking people back and the inflation data is supportive and has weakened the Canadian dollar,” Noel Hebert, chief investment officer at Bethlehem, Pennsylvania-based Concannon Wealth Management LLC, which oversees about $250 million, said in a telephone interview. “The economy seemed to be holding in for a bit, but now you’re starting to see it falter as malaise spreads out from Asia and Europe.”
Canada’s currency dropped 1.4 percent to 99.36 cents per U.S. dollar. The decline is the biggest weekly drop since the five days that ended May 18. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0064. The currency’s 200-day moving average is $1.0001.
Carney has kept his key lending rate at 1 percent for more than two years and will probably leave it unchanged again at the Oct. 23 meeting, according to a Bloomberg economist survey.

Risk Aversion

“The tale of the tape this week from Monday on was the Carney comments were much more dovish than many people were expecting,” Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a telephone interview. “If we continue to grind up, it think we’ll see more focus” on the 200-day moving average.
Investor risk aversion increased yesterday after Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said his nation doesn’t feel under any pressure to ask for a bailout, fueling concern the European Union’s debt crisis will be prolonged. Rajoy spoke after a two- day European Union summit in Brussels.
“Nothing firm came out of the EU summit, and fiscal cliff talk isn’t helping things,” Thomas Molloy, chief dealer at FX Solutions LLC, an online currency-trading company in Saddle River, New Jersey, said in a telephone interview. “It’s generally risk off.”
The so-called fiscal cliff refers to $607 billion in U.S. federal spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January unless the U.S. Congress acts. The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner.

Worst Performer

Government bonds fell, pushing the benchmark 10-year note up 0.05 percentage point, or five basis points, to end the week at 1.84 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent notes maturing in June 2022 fell 44 cents to C$107.95.
Canadian government bonds have lost 0.4 percent this month, on pace for the worst monthly performance since March, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Index data.
The consumer price index rose 1.2 percent in September from a year ago, matching the August pace, Statistics Canada said yesterday from Ottawa. The central bank’s preferred core rate slowed to 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent in August, the least in more than a year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast total inflation of 1.3 percent and a core rate of 1.4 percent.
“The weak CPI data will have an impact on how the Bank of Canada telegraphs its forward-looking language,” Mazen Issa, Canada macro strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities unit, said in a phone interview. “The data shows that on a year-over-year basis, inflation will be fairly benign and the growth outlook won’t change between now and next week -- we’re still expecting to see below-trend growth.”

‘Generally Squishy’

Crude oil, the nation’s largest export, fell 1.9 percent this week to $90.13 a barrel in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.7 percent yesterday, the biggest one-day decline since June, as companies including General Electric Co. reduced revenue forecasts.
“The economic weakness gets reflected in crude,” said Hebert of Concannon. “As much as the reports themselves, the guidance has been generally squishy, negative. If a lot of the corporates are seeing softness, then what does that mean from a global growth standpoint?”

Source: Bloomberg


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Yen Drops to Month Low on Stocks, U.S. Growth Outlook

The yen declined against most of its major peers as Asian stocks rose before U.S. data forecast to show improvement in industrial production and housing starts, reducing demand for refuge assets.
The Japanese currency slid for a fourth day to an almost one-month low against the greenback after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. growth will pick up next year and push down unemployment. Demand for the euro was supported before European Union leaders meet this week to discuss measures to contain the debt crisis. New Zealand’s dollar slid after data showed annual inflation was the slowest in more than 12 years.

 

The yen weakened 0.2 percent to 78.79 per dollar as of 8:56 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s currency slid 0.3 percent to 102.18 per euro from 101.84 yesterday. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda talks about the yen's strength, its impact on the local economy and the government's readiness to act against any disorderly gains for the currency. Noda speaks with Bloomberg's Matt Winkler and Brian Fowler in Tokyo. (This is an excerpt and a translation of Noda's remarks in Japanese. Source: Bloomberg)

“We’re looking for further improvement in U.S. data,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “The U.S. economy is set to outperform Japan and Europe, and that should see some support for the U.S. dollar and weakness in the yen.”
The yen slipped 0.3 percent to 78.88 per dollar as of 7 a.m. in London, adding to a 0.6 percent decline over the previous three trading days. It touched 78.91, the weakest since Sept. 19. Japan’s currency lost 0.5 percent to 102.32 per euro. The euro added 0.2 percent to $1.2971.
The yen has fallen 5.1 percent this year, the worst performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar and the euro both declined 2.3 percent.

Industry, Housing

U.S. industrial production probably increased 0.2 percent in September from the previous month, when it fell 1.2 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Fed releases the figures today.
Economists in a separate poll predict that Commerce Department data due Oct. 17 will show new housing construction climbed 20,000 from August to a 770,000 annual rate last month, the most since October 2008. The department reported yesterday that retail sales increased 1.1 percent last month, following a revised 1.2 percent gain in August that was the biggest since October 2010.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks climbed 0.8 percent after a 0.8 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) of U.S. shares yesterday.

Softbank, Sprint

Demand for the Japan’s currency was also limited after the nation’s third-largest mobile-phone operator Softbank Corp. (9984) agreed to buy a stake of about 70 percent in Kansas-based Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) for $20.1 billion. That deal would be the biggest publicly announced outbound acquisition by a Japanese company since at least 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“This move in the yen has more to do with talk of Japanese corporate activity,” Emma Lawson, a Sydney-based currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd., said in reference to Softbank’s takeover of Sprint.
The yen is likely to weaken in the longer term, according to Jens Nordvig, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s managing director of currency research. Data are pointing to stronger outflows of funds from the country, he wrote in a note to clients yesterday.
Nomura forecasts the yen will depreciate to 82 per dollar at the end of the year and to 83 in the first quarter of 2013.
The greenback may advance to an eight-week high against the yen should it breach key resistance levels, according to Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., citing trading patterns.

U.S. Dollar

The dollar may strengthen to its 200-day moving average of 79.39 yen should it rise above the upper end of its daily Bollinger band at 78.86 and the higher end of the Ichimoku cloud at 78.90, said Teppei Ino, an analyst in Tokthe unit of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest financial group by market value.
The 17-nation euro rose before EU leaders start a two-day summit in Brussels on Oct. 18 amid speculation Spain will ask for a financial bailout. The country is preparing to make request for a rescue and allow the European Central Bank to begin buying its debt, the Financial Times reported, citing an unidentified Spanish economy ministry official.
“The market wants some signs that perhaps Spain’s been compelled to ask for aid and some confirmation that Greece is set to receive its next tranche,” Bank of New Zealand’s Jones said. “If we see either of those scenarios, we would see a relief rally in the euro.”
Consumer prices in New Zealand rose 0.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the country’s statistics bureau said in Wellington today. The result was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1999.
The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.3 percent to 81.64 U.S. cents.

Source: Bloomberg

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Canadian Dollar Falls Against Peers on China Slowdow

The Canadian dollar fell against a majority of its most-traded peers on concern slowing Chinese growth will hurt demand for commodities such as oil and gold.
The loonie, as the currency is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell after China car sales unexpectedly shrank for the first time in eight months while Alcoa Inc. (AA) said the nation’s slowing growth will cut global demand for aluminum. Raw materials account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.
“This is the market jittery ahead of earnings season,” Greg Anderson, the North American head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview. “We’re likely to see that choppiness continue. We still think the Canadian dollar is a safer trade relative to” other commodity-driven currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Canada’s currency was little changed at 97.81 cents per U.S. dollar at 9:33 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys $1.02239.
The Bank of Canada will auction C$2.7 billion ($2.8 billion) in three-year notes today. The last sale of this note maturity on Aug. 29 was C$2.9 billion and yielded 1.278 percent with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.73, measuring the level of bids versus the amount of debt for sale.


Source: Bloomberg

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Aussie Dollar Drops to Three-Week Low on Rate Cut as Yen Slides

The Australian dollar slid to a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate to the least since 2009.
The Aussie dropped against all of its 16 most-traded peers as a global slowdown drags on commodity prices that have helped drive 21 years of growth. The yen fell amid speculation Japan may act to weaken the currency. The euro rose as Spanish and Italian bonds advanced before an Oct. 4 meeting of the European Central Bank. South Africa’s rand gained versus the U.S. dollar for the first time in three days.
“The rate cut is clearly a surprise,” Andrew Busch, a global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The Aussie dollar is going to be quite soft going forward. There could be a move toward parity if we start to see deterioration in the stock markets globally.”
Australia’s dollar fell 0.5 percent to $1.0311 at 9:12 a.m. New York time, after touching $1.0292, the lowest level since Sept. 7. The yen weakened 0.5 percent to 100.97 per euro and lost 0.2 percent to 78.12 per dollar. The 17-nation euro added 0.3 percent to $1.2924.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and his board lowered the overnight cash-rate target by a quarter-percentage point to 3.25 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Sydney today.

Swaps Indicator

The decision to end a three-month pause was predicted by nine of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Swaps markets indicated before the RBA announcement that there was a more than 70 percent chance of a reduction in the cash-rate target, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Lower interest rates reduce the yield on a nation’s fixed- income assets, making the currency less attractive to investors from overseas.
New Zealand’s dollar gained versus most major currencies after a report showed commodity export prices advanced last month, buoying the currency. ANZ National Bank Ltd.’s price index rose 3.5 percent to 263 in September, its highest level since April.
The currency, nicknamed the kiwi, rose 0.5 percent to 83.14 U.S. cents. The kiwi strengthened 0.6 percent to 64.96 yen.
South Africa’s rand strengthened as foreign buying of the country’s government bonds increased after they were included in a key index.
The rand advanced as much as 0.7 percent before trading 0.2 percent stronger at 8.3687 per dollar. Yields on 6.75 percent notes due 2021 fell nine basis points to 6.57 percent.

Ruble Falls

The Russian ruble decreased against the euro amid concerns that declining commodity prices will pare investor appetite for the currency of the world’s biggest energy exporter. The ruble fell 0.3 percent to 40.1977 per euro.
The yen slid against all of its 16 major peers except the Australian dollar after Japan’s new Finance Minister Koriki Jojima said the government will “take bold actions against the currency’s excessive moves, if necessary.”
His comments echoed those used by predecessor Jun Azumi, signaling that intervention in currency markets remains an option.
“The new finance minister was pretty clear that the rhetoric hasn’t changed, even though the post has,” said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS AG (UBSN) in London. “We’re at levels where previously they were intervening. Once you get around 80, people think you might get a further bout.”
Japan hasn’t intervened in the currency market since November, according to the finance ministry.

Gains Limited

Gains in the euro were limited before data tomorrow that economists in a Bloomberg survey said will show European retail sales fell 0.1 percent in August from July, when they slipped 0.2 percent. Figures yesterday showed unemployment in the euro area climbed to a record 11.4 percent in August.
The Frankfurt-based ECB will keep its main refinancing rate unchanged at a record low 0.75 percent this week and will reduce it by the end of the year, a separate Bloomberg survey of economists showed.
Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said the nation is pressing on with its analysis of whether to seek a bailout, moving beyond his call last week that the European Union needed to provide more guidance on conditions.
“If Spain decides to ask for a bailout, that’s a positive factor for the euro,” said Noriaki Murao, New York-based managing director of the marketing group at the Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s biggest financial group by market value. “That could reduce risks of a euro breakup.”
The euro lost 2.9 percent over the past six months, the biggest drop after the Swiss franc among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. The dollar rose 0.4 percent and the yen jumped 6.1 percent. The Aussie depreciated 0.8 percent, the indexes showed.

Source: Bloomberg

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